Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2806 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2806 · DFW → MSP

departs 6:51 PM CT · arrives 9:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.35 in

MSP (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2806 · DFW → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?