Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2833 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2833 · MIA → BNA

departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 10:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2833 · MIA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?