Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2844SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AA 2844 · PHX → JAX
departs 4:09 PM MT · arrives 11:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
24%chance · ±1 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.