Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2873 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2873 · DFW → TYS

departs 9:48 AM CT · arrives 12:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at TYS that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

TYS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2873 · DFW → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?