Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2937 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2937 · DFW → FSD

departs 7:49 PM CT · arrives 9:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±6 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.52 in

FSD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2937 · DFW → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?