Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2944 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2944 · CLT → STX

departs 12:06 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM AST

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at STX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ STX is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↓ 12pm departures from CLT are usually not late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.08 in

STX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2944 · CLT → STX

Odds over time

How late will it get to STX?