Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3009 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3009 · PHX → CLT

departs 5:00 AM MT · arrives 12:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from PHX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3009 · PHX → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?