AA 3019 · BGR → CLT

departs 5:24 PM ET · arrives 8:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ CLT usually runs smoothly

↓ Visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at BGR that day

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3019 · BGR → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?