Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3089 LANDED 8:29 AM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 3089 · SJU → MIA

took off · landed 8:29 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3089 · SJU → MIA

Odds over time