Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3128 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3128 · MIA → LGA

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 8:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3128 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?