Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3146 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3146 · CLT → CLE

departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.51 in

CLE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3146 · CLT → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?