Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3156 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3156 · CLT → DEN

departs 9:25 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.79 in

DEN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3156 · CLT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?