Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3165 · SJU → MIA

departs 7:14 PM AT · arrives 10:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from SJU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3165 · SJU → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?