AA 3169 · MIA → PHL

departs 6:02 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3169 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?