Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3174SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 3174 · PHX → FAT
departs 8:51 PM MT · arrives 10:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
28%chance · ±4 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.