Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3186 · LAS → PHX

departs 4:34 PM PT · arrives 5:48 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3186 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?