Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3186 · LAS → PHX

departs 4:34 PM PT · arrives 5:48 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3186 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?