AA 3261 · MIA → ATL

departs 8:58 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3261 · MIA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?