Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3283 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3283 · LAX → DCA

departs 8:23 AM PT · arrives 4:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3283 · LAX → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?