Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3319 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3319 · LAX → PHL

departs 12:18 PM PT · arrives 8:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3319 · LAX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?