AA 408 · MSP → PHX

took off 3:03 PM CT · expected to land 3:49 PM MT (scheduled 2:44 PM CT → 4:10 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 408 · MSP → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?