Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 413 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 413 · SAT → DFW

departs 7:21 PM CT · arrives 8:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.51 in

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 413 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?