Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 413 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 413 · SAT → DFW

departs 11:04 AM CT · arrives 12:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±15 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ 11am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.70 in

DFW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 413 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?