Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 466 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 466 · CLT → SAN

departs 11:15 AM ET · arrives 1:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.31 in

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 466 · CLT → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?