AA 467 · LAX → MIA

took off 2:02 PM PT · expected to land 9:37 PM ET (scheduled 1:46 PM PT → 9:58 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 467 · LAX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?