Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 489 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 489 · DCA → ORD

departs 11:35 AM ET · arrives 12:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 489 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?