Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 584 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 584 · DFW → TUS

departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 3:01 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at TUS that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

TUS (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 584 · DFW → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?