AA 593 · TPA → MIA

took off 10:13 AM ET · expected to land 10:51 AM ET (scheduled 10:03 AM ET → 11:18 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.15 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 593 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?