AA 783 · CLT → SJU

took off 11:27 AM ET · landed 2:39 PM AT (scheduled 11:03 AM ET → 2:50 PM AT)

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ SJU is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.38 in

SJU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 783 · CLT → SJU

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJU?