AA 812 · AUS → MIA

took off 12:45 PM CT · landed 4:10 PM ET (scheduled 11:58 AM CT → 3:58 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 812 · AUS → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?