AA 838 · HAV → MIA

departs 2:46 PM CDT · arrives 4:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HAV

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ 2pm departures from HAV are usually not late

Weather at each end

HAV (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MIA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 838 · HAV → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?