Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 867 LANDED 9:04 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 867 · MSY → MIA

took off 6:24 AM CT · landed 9:04 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.90 in

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 867 · MSY → MIA

Odds over time