AA 928 · MIA → STX

departs 12:53 PM ET · arrives 3:51 PM AST

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at STX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at STX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 928 · MIA → STX

Odds over time

How late will it get to STX?