Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 961 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 961 · CLT → OMA

departs 10:41 PM ET · arrives 12:19 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

OMA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 961 · CLT → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?