Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1082 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1082 · HNL → ITO

departs 3:21 PM HT · arrives 4:15 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ITO that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

ITO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1082 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?