Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1104 · LIH → HNL

departs 3:45 PM HT · arrives 4:22 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1104 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?