Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AS 1104 · LIH → HNL

departs 3:45 PM HT · arrives 4:22 PM HT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HNL that day

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1104 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?