Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1416 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1416 · SJC → HNL

departs 8:15 AM PT · arrives 10:49 AM HT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 8am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1416 · SJC → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?