Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1416 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 1416 · SJC → HNL

departs 8:15 AM PT · arrives 10:49 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SJC that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1416 · SJC → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?