AS 268 · SEA → HNL

took off 8:57 PM PT · landed 11:20 PM HT (scheduled 8:46 PM PT → 11:32 PM HT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to HNL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 268 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late did it get to HNL?