Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AS 296 · BOI → SEA

departs 6:10 PM MT · arrives 6:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 296 · BOI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?