Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 296 · BOI → SEA

departs 6:13 PM MT · arrives 6:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 296 · BOI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?