Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Saturday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 528 SCHEDULED

Saturday, October 3 Today

AS 528 · SEA → SFO

departs 8:53 AM PT · arrives 11:09 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 528 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?