Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 528 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AS 528 · SEA → SFO

departs 8:53 AM PT · arrives 11:09 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 528 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?