Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 64 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 64 · ANC → JNU

departs 10:31 AM AKT · arrives 12:13 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at JNU

↑ Other factors

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

↓ 10am departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JNU (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 64 · ANC → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?