Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 795 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 795 · SMF → SEA

departs 8:03 AM PT · arrives 10:09 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ 8am departures from SMF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 795 · SMF → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?