Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AS 7 · DCA → SFO
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 9:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 117h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
24%chance · ±5 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
75%
15 min–1 hour late
16%
Over 1 hour late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.