AS 841 · PDX → HNL

departs 5:32 PM PT · arrives 8:24 PM HT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 841 · PDX → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?