Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AS 841 · PDX → HNL

departs 5:32 PM PT · arrives 8:24 PM HT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 841 · PDX → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?