Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 964 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 964 · LIH → LAX

departs 11:31 AM HT · arrives 8:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ 11am departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 964 · LIH → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?